The Sabres’ path to the postseason

On Wednesday, we wondered if the Buffalo Sabers or Washington Capitals — who met that night — could clinch a playoff spot. Before that game, the Sabers’ playoff chances were 16%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The Caps would win the shootout that night, and the Sabers would lose to the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2 on Friday. Their playoff chances are now 7%.

If there’s a path for Buffalo to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2010-11, it starts with Sunday’s matchup against the Boston Bruins (1 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). So far this season, the Bruins have won two games (3-1 on Nov. 12 and 7-1 on March 2), while the Sabers won 4-3 in OT on New Year’s Eve. Winning against the Bruins could be a tall order based on what we saw against Philly on Friday.

After Sunday, six of the Sabres’ final 13 games will be against teams currently in playoff position. They will also face fellow wild-card contenders – the Florida Panthers, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators – one each.

So this is not an impossible task, but it is certainly difficult. The good news: The Sabers will play a game on the final day of the season against the cellar-dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets, so they’ll be in a good spot if they need just two more points to push them into the postseason.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check out all the playoff races — along with the teams vying for a position in the 2023 NHL Draft lottery.

Note: Playoff odds are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matches
Today’s matches
Last night’s results
Expanded order
Race for number 1

Current playoff matches

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Sunday games

Note: All times Eastern. All non-ESPN, TNT or NHL Network games are available via NHL Power Play, which is included with an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, 1 p.m
Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, 2 p.m. (NHLN)
Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights, 4 p.m
Nashville Predators at New York Rangers, 7 p.m
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, 7 p.m
New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:00 p.m. (NHLN)
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m

Saturday scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Boston Bruins 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Winnipeg Jets 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 6, Seattle Kraken 4
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Montreal Canadiens 3
New York Rangers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Dallas Stars 6, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)
Arizona Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 1

Expanded order

Atlantic Division

points: 109
Regulation wins: 45
Playoff position: A1
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 131
Next game: @ BUF (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 100%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 93
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 111
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 105
Next game: vs NJ (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 92
Next game: @ TO (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 63%
Tragic number: 25

points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 87
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 7%
Tragic number: 22

points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 84
Next game: @ PIT (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 1%
Tragic number: 19

points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 83
Next game: vs. FLA (Monday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 19

points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 70
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 6

Metropolitan Division

points: 98
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 118
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 95
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 113
Next game: @ TB (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M3
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 107
Next game: against NSH (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 80
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Other games: 11
Pace Points: 92
Next game: s. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds: 63%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 93
Next game: vs. THERE (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 60%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 86
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 5%
Tragic number: 19

points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 74
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 10

points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 59
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

points: 89
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 104
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 104
Next game: vs. CHI (Monday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C3
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 102
Next game: vs WSH (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 98%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 95
Next game: @ STL (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 71%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 15
Pace Points: 93
Next game: @ NYR (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: 22%
Tragic number: 25

points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 78
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 12

points: 65
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 76
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 7

points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 64
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P1
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 107
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 105
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 86
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 101
Next game: vs. SJ (Monday)
Playoff Odds: >99%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 99
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff Odds: 89%
Tragic number: N / A

points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 90
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 21%
Tragic number: 20

points: 65
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 14
Pace Points: 78
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 12

points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 13
Pace Points: 67
Next game: vs. OUT (Sunday)
Playoff Odds:
Tragic number: 1

points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N / A
Other games: 12
Pace Points: 61
Next game: @ EDM (Monday)
Playoff Odds: 0%
Tragic number: E

X — Qualified for the playoffs; E — Eliminated from the playoffs

Race for number 1

The NHL uses the draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes last is not guaranteed the top seed. Starting in 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the lottery for the first pick. You can find all the details about the process here. At the top of this summer’s draft board is Connor Bedard, who has been hailed as a generational talent.

points: 49
Regulation wins: 15

points: 52
Regulation wins: 14

points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

points: 65
Regulation wins: 18

points: 65
Regulation wins: 20

points: 65
Regulation wins: 22

points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

points: 76
Regulation wins: 25

points: 77
Regulation wins: 25

points: 77
Regulation wins: 30

Notes on traded types affecting the top 16: